TI
TUCOWS INC /PA/ (TCX)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered solid YoY improvement: revenue $92.3M (+6.1% YoY), gross profit $22.2M (+32.4% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA $8.7M (+94% YoY), while net loss narrowed modestly to $22.3M ($2.03 loss per share) .
- Ting pivoted to “operate and load” with a second workforce reduction (~42% of Ting; ~17% of Tucows) to remove ~$22M of annual cash OpEx; Ting revenue grew 19% YoY to $15.3M, gross margin rose 38% YoY to $11.0M, and adjusted EBITDA loss improved to -$5.1M; management targets Ting around EBITDA breakeven in 2025 .
- Wavelo remained resilient with $10.1M revenue and ~99% gross margin; Domains posted a steady quarter with $64.7M revenue, $19.8M gross margin, and $11.5M adjusted EBITDA; Domains renewal rate held at 76% .
- Balance sheet flexibility improved: cash and restricted cash totaled $91.1M at quarter-end; quarterly repayments on the syndicated loan continued; first debt maturity in 2028; capital deployment shifted to success-based capex ($8.2M in Q3 vs just over $12M in Q2) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Margin expansion across businesses: consolidated gross margin rose to 24% (from 19% in Q3’23); Ting gross margin rose to 72% (from 62%); Wavelo GM to 99% (from 95%); Domains GM to 31% (from 30%) .
- Domains durability: revenue $64.7M (+6% YoY), GM $19.8M (+8% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $11.5M (+6% YoY); renewal rate at 76%, above industry average; “expiry stream” nonrecurring sales aided value-added services .
- Cost discipline and deleveraging: second restructuring to cut ~$22M of cash OpEx; continued syndicated debt repayment, with cash + restricted cash at $91.1M .
- Management quote: “We laid off over 40% of the Ting workforce… [to] move Ting to a sustainable cost structure with positive and growing adjusted EBITDA. The plan removes around $22 million in cash operating expenses.” .
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What Went Wrong
- Ting financing and scale headwinds: unsuccessful search for a long-term common equity partner; sector mid-market equity remains tight; $40M annual Ting interest persists before success-based capex in 2025 .
- Wavelo YoY pressure: revenue and gross margin down YoY versus post-migration peak/PS lumpy comps; adjusted EBITDA down YoY on fewer one-time services and subscriber mix at EchoStar/Boost .
- Continued GAAP losses: Q3 net loss of $22.3M (vs $22.8M loss in Q3’23) despite sizable non-GAAP EBITDA improvement; depreciation and interest remain material drags .
Financial Results
Overall performance and comparisons
Segment revenue
Segment gross margin
Segment adjusted EBITDA
Key KPIs
Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA excludes depreciation, impairment, amortization, income taxes, net interest, stock-based comp, FX revaluation, acquisition/transition costs, and certain other non-cash or non-recurring items; reconciliations provided in releases .
Estimates comparison: Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3’24 was unavailable at time of analysis due to data limits; therefore, no “vs. estimates” variances are shown. S&P Global is our preferred source for consensus.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We laid off over 40% of the Ting workforce… [to] move Ting to a sustainable cost structure with positive and growing adjusted EBITDA. The plan removes around $22 million in cash operating expenses…” .
- “We will stop all expansion into new markets and take a more conservative approach to capital deployment, focusing on success-based CapEx… and partner addresses…” .
- “With the changes implemented… we expect Ting to be around EBITDA breakeven in 2025… we have roughly $40 million a year in interest payments… every customer we add requires success-based CapEx.” .
- “Consolidated revenue up 6.1% to $92.3 million… gross profit up 32.4%… adjusted EBITDA up 94%...” .
- “Wavelo… ~99% gross margin… our platform is uniquely positioned to help solve enterprise-grade problems at scale.” .
- “Domains… revenue $64.7 million, gross margin $19.8 million… renewal rate 76%… expiry stream strength.” .
Q&A Highlights
- No live Q&A; investors invited to submit questions by Nov 14 with a recorded response posted on Nov 26 (company site) .
- Areas likely to draw questions based on remarks: Ting breakeven path and success-based capex pace; interest burden (~$40M/yr) and deleveraging cadence; Wavelo pipeline conversion timing; sustainability of Domains expiry-driven value-added services .
- Prior Q&A context (Q1): ex‑Ting 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance $53–$57M; Ting penetration in older markets meeting 50% target; drivers of Ting EBITDA improvement (workforce reduction, marketing normalization) .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3’24 was unavailable at the time of analysis due to data limits. We therefore do not present “vs. consensus” variances. S&P Global is our default source for consensus estimates.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Structural pivot at Ting is the catalyst: halting footprint expansion, removing ~$22M cash OpEx, and focusing on loading existing and partner networks should drive EBITDA inflection, with a stated target of around breakeven in 2025 .
- Quality of earnings improving: significant YoY expansion in consolidated gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, led by Ting margin gains and steady Domains, even as GAAP losses persist due to depreciation/interest .
- Liquidity runway and deleveraging: cash + restricted cash at $91.1M; quarterly paydown continues; first debt maturity in 2028; capex shifted to success-based, reducing cash burn .
- Wavelo remains a strategic asset: high gross margin (~99%), modular stack positioned for AI-enabled telco operations; near-term revenue optics can be lumpy due to prior PS recognition timing, but platform fundamentals are intact .
- Domains provides ballast: 7th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, healthy renewal rate (76%), and steady adjusted EBITDA contribution, supporting deleveraging and capex moderation elsewhere .
- Near-term trading: stock likely sensitive to evidence of Ting subscriber loading, capex discipline, and debt repayment cadence; any large Wavelo logo wins could re-rate growth expectations .
- Medium-term thesis: execution on the “operate and load” strategy at Ting, continued cash generation from Domains, and upmarket Wavelo wins are the primary drivers to narrow GAAP losses and improve free cash flow over 2025+ .